Connor Mackey
New York Rangers Defense
Undrafted, thirty-nine NHL games at twenty-seven, and the 8th percentile of chance share.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | CGY | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25.0 | 14:10 |
| 2021-22 | CGY | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 13:35 |
| 2022-23 | CGY/ARI | 30 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 9.7 | 14:03 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 39 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 10.3 | 14:02 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 4 assists in 30 games — 7 points — for Arizona, at 14:03 a night. Minus-4, 31 shots, 48 penalty minutes in thirty games.
42 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 8th percentile, across 382 minutes, with his ice at 21-26 against an expectation of 15.14-20.89 — six goals better than the chances at the attacking end and five worse at the defensive, on a sample where none of those numbers should be trusted.
He started 51.5 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 55th percentile, so the share is his own rather than the deployment’s.
Three seasons, 39 NHL games, 11 points.
The Finesse Game
31 shots at a median of 53 feet, 82 per cent of them from beyond forty, and three goals.
Beyond forty: 22 shots on goal and none. Inside twenty: two shots. There is no chart to read.
28 wrist shots and 10 slap out of 46 tracked attempts. 94.4 mph at the 75th percentile.
7 career assists in 39 games. The offensive file is a blank page and it will stay one.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 205, with seventy career penalty minutes in thirty-nine career games.
Top speed 21.3 mph, the 9th percentile; 0.4 bursts a game, the 17th; 2.05 miles a game, the 19th. Bottom fifth of the league in all three.
He plays the body, drops the gloves and clears his crease, which at that penalty rate is not a description so much as an arithmetic certainty.
A defenceman this slow with the 8th-percentile chance share is being beaten before the contact happens, and the penalty minutes are partly what that costs.
The Intangibles
Undrafted, and 39 NHL games across three seasons in Calgary and Arizona.
He is twenty-seven, which means the American league is the honest base case and this is a seventh-defenceman signing.
There is nothing wrong with that and the file should say so plainly: a club that needs a physical left shot for twenty games has found one, and nothing in the measurements suggests he should play more.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“Undrafted, and 39 NHL games across three seasons in Calgary and Arizona.”
“He plays the body, drops the gloves and clears his crease, which at that penalty rate is not a description so much as an arithmetic certainty.”
“A defenceman this slow with the 8th-percentile chance share is being beaten before the contact happens, and the penalty minutes are partly what that costs.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 382 minutes
- Expected goals
- 42%
- 8th pct
- Shot attempts
- 48.3%
- 40th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 26 against. Expected: 15.1 and 20.9.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 30 games
- Top speed
- 21.3 mph
- 39th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.37 a game
- Distance
- 2.05 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 94.4 mph
- 67th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 90.0
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with ARI · 282 minutes at five-on-five
- Michael Kesselring9%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- ARI took 45.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.0% — 3.5 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 382 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Soderstrom | 42.0% | 42.0% | 46.9% |
| Travis Boyd | 38.6% | 43.0% | 41.8% |
| Christian Fischer | 46.3% | 41.0% | 42.7% |
42.0% together, 42.0% for him apart and 46.9% for Soderstrom apart. Soderstrom was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
44 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 82% from beyond forty.