Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

17

Brett Leason

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing

Six-foot-five, 23, and a first NHL season of 36 games at 8:57 a night that produced three goals and the best chance share on the fourth line in Washington.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22WSH36336+14000456.78:57
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—36336+14000456.78:57

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With Washington. 3 goals and 3 assists in 36 games — 6 points at 8:57 a night, plus-1, on 45 shots and 4 penalty minutes.

Eight minutes and fifty-seven seconds a night is a thirteenth forward’s ice time and 36 games is the whole of his NHL career.

54.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 330 minutes. His ice went 9-9 against an expectation of 12.19-10.13 — three goals of scoring that the chances said should have arrived and did not. On a good Washington club that is a perfectly respectable number, and it was not earned in easy circumstances: he started 41.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking end, the 14th percentile, which is the deployment of a fourth-liner and not of a protected rookie.

43.3 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, which is the deployment a fourth-liner gets when the coach wants nothing complicated to happen.

The Finesse Game

45 attempts and 33 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet, at a median of 32 — a mixed chart with a third of it from beyond 40. He converted at 6.7 per cent.

87.3 mph on the shot, which for a 6-5 winger is soft, and 6 points in 36 games says the hands have not yet made anything happen at this level. He was a nineteen-year-old scoring 89 points in the WHL and none of that has travelled so far.

The Physical Game

6-5 and 220 is the reason he is on an NHL roster at 23, and 4 penalty minutes in 36 games says he has not yet worked out what to do with it. That is the whole development question: a man this size who is not hard to play against is not a fourth-line winger, he is a large passenger.

The tracking gives a 22.1 mph top speed and a real burst rate for a man his size. The ground-covered figure reads at the bottom of the league and should be ignored — it is a per-game measure and he played nine minutes a night.

The Intangibles

Fifty-sixth overall in 2019 by Washington, a twice-passed-over draft eligible who went in the second round at twenty after a 89-point season in Prince Albert.

He is 23, arriving in Anaheim from an organisation that had no room for him, at a club that has room for almost anybody. A 6-5 winger with three NHL goals is a lottery ticket and this is the year it either does something or does not — and a rebuilding roster is the one place where a player gets enough shifts for the question to be answered honestly.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-frontpresent and ordinary· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “33 per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet, at a median of 32”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 330 minutes

Expected goals
54.6%
84th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.7%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 9 for, 9 against. Expected: 12.2 and 10.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
84th

The numbers rank him 71 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 36 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
50th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.49 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.3 mph
51st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with WSH · 330 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.6% — 3.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
330 minutes at five-on-five — 9th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Carl Hagelin53.0%55.5%50.5%
Martin Fehervary64.4%50.4%47.4%
Nick Jensen50.7%56.5%51.0%

53.0% together, 55.5% for him apart and 50.5% for Hagelin apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 37% from beyond forty.