Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

46

Karson Kuhlman

Seattle Kraken Center

The 91st-percentile sprint count and the 4th-percentile shooting rate, undrafted at 27.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19BOS11325+520011520.012:09
2019-20BOS25156+313100452.212:32
2020-21BOS20202-60000316.510:39
2021-22BOS/SEA443710-26000684.411:54
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—100914230211011595.711:50

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

44 games between Boston and Seattle, 3 goals and 7 assists at 11:54 a night, minus-2, six penalty minutes, 68 shots. Undrafted, and a hundred NHL games across four seasons out of it.

The Finesse Game

Three goals from sixty-eight shots is 4.4 per cent, the 4th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games. His shot is 85.4 mph, the 18th percentile. There is no finishing here and there never has been — nine goals in a hundred career games.

7.79 shots per 60 is the 60th percentile and fifty-six per cent of his attempts came from the slot at a 23-foot median. He gets to the right places and cannot beat a goaltender from them.

1.24 even-strength points per 60 is the 18th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — two seconds a night, the 3rd percentile.

51.4 per cent of the expected goals and 50.1 per cent of the attempts, out of 46.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 222nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — one of the three hardest chairs among the Seattle forwards.

A 51.4 per cent chance share out of a below-level chair, on a fourth line, is the argument for him, and his ice went 12-13 against an expectation of 18.50-17.53.

The Physical Game

8.13 hits per 60 is the 82nd percentile and 2.29 blocks the 78th at 5-11 and 184 pounds. Six penalty minutes in forty-four games and 0.34 penalties taken per 60 at the 14th percentile.

He plays a heavy fourth-line game and stays out of the box entirely, which on this roster is worth naming.

The Intangibles

11.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 91st percentile among forwards, at 5-11 and 184 pounds.

Against a 22.7 mph top speed at the 67th and 9.76 miles per 60 at the 60th. He sprints far more often than he is fast and covers an ordinary amount of ground — the shape of very short, very hard shifts.

He is 27, undrafted, and has a hundred NHL games and twenty-three points. The sprints, the hits, the blocks, the discipline and a positive chance share out of a hard chair are five real things. Nine goals in a hundred games is why the sixth line of every file about him is the same.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.14 penalty minutes a game over 44, 6th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and a hundred NHL games across four seasons out of it.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “11.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 91st percentile among forwards, at 5-11 and 184 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 478 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.1%
57th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 13 against. Expected: 18.5 and 17.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
66th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 44 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
77th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.94 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.4 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 286 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SEA took 49.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
478 minutes at five-on-five — 17th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Yanni Gourde52.1%50.9%49.1%
Jared McCann61.0%46.9%49.0%
Adam Larsson53.2%50.8%45.5%

52.1% together, 50.9% for him apart and 49.1% for Gourde apart. Gourde was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Gourde than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

88 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.