Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

15

John Hayden

Seattle Kraken Center

The fewest even-strength points per 60 of all 393 forwards, and the 11th-most penalties drawn.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17CHI12134+34000224.511:41
2017-18CHI474913-454010567.110:49
2018-19CHI54325-1227000427.19:10
2019-20NJD43314-277001397.79:43
2020-21ARI29235-437002219.59:49
2021-22BUF55224-1284000653.110:51
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—240152035-312830132456.110:11

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

55 games for Buffalo, 2 goals and 2 assists at 10:51 a night, minus-12, eighty-four penalty minutes, 65 shots. Seventy-fourth overall in 2013 by Chicago — the third round — six seasons.

The Finesse Game

0.43 even-strength points per 60 is the fewest of all 393 forwards who played forty games. Not a band — the lowest figure in the league.

Two goals from sixty-five shots is 3.1 per cent, the 1st percentile. His shot is 82.8 mph, the 7th percentile. There is no offence here in any column and the record does not pretend otherwise.

41.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 4th percentile and 43.0 per cent of the attempts the 4th, out of 46.0 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 211th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — below level and nothing like the hardest chair in the league.

His ice went 10-21 against an expectation of 16.51-23.21, on the club that finished 28th in goaltending at minus-26.5.

The Physical Game

10.46 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among forwards, at 6-3 and 223 pounds.

2.11 penalties taken per 60 is the 98th percentile among forwards and eighty-four penalty minutes came out of fifty-five games at 10:51 a night.

And he draws them too: 1.81 per 60 is the 11th-most of the 393. The net is minus-0.30, the 15th percentile. He is involved in more penalties per minute than almost anybody in hockey and loses the exchange.

2.41 blocks per 60 is the 81st percentile.

The Intangibles

21.8 mph is the 15th percentile, 3.7 bursts per 60 the 30th, 9.81 miles per 60 the 64th. Nothing in the skating explains the possession shares and nothing in it contradicts them.

Thirty-five seconds a night short-handed is the 49th percentile — for a fourth-line forward built like this, that is a small penalty-killing role.

He is 27 and has 240 NHL games across six seasons with five organisations, and 283 career penalty minutes out of them. The hits, the blocks and the drawn penalties are three real things. The scoring rate is the lowest in the league, the penalties taken are the 98th percentile, and a club that spent 4:25 a game short-handed has signed a man who adds to that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “10.46 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among forwards, at 6-3 and 223 pounds.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “2.11 penalties taken per 60 is the 98th percentile among forwards and eighty-four penalty minutes came out of fifty-five games at 10:51 a night.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 580 minutes

Expected goals
41.6%
6th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43%
6th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 21 against. Expected: 16.5 and 23.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
6th

The report ranks him 20 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 55 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
33rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.67 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
82.8 mph
30th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with BUF · 580 minutes at five-on-five

  • Cody Eakinoff the roster48%
  • Arttu Ruotsalainenoff the roster25%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
BUF took 46.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.6% — 4.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
580 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Anders Bjork39.0%44.1%40.8%
Cody Eakin38.4%43.6%41.7%
Rasmus Dahlin41.3%41.7%47.0%

39.0% together, 44.1% for him apart and 40.8% for Bjork apart. He was better away from Bjork, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Bjork.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

82 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.