Dillon Dube
Calgary Flames Center
The 97th percentile in sprints and the 96th in top speed, on a club's third line.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | CGY | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5 | 10:04 |
| 2019-20 | CGY | 45 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 60 | 10.0 | 12:41 |
| 2020-21 | CGY | 51 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -1 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 13.1 | 13:38 |
| 2021-22 | CGY | 79 | 18 | 14 | 32 | +1 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 12.6 | 12:50 |
| 2022-23 | CGY | 82 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -6 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 151 | 11.9 | 15:10 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 282 | 54 | 66 | 120 | -4 | 97 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 460 | 11.7 | 13:23 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
18 goals and 27 assists in 82 games — 45 points, a career high, at 15:10 a night, minus-6, with 2 shorthanded goals on 151 shots, converting at 11.92 per cent, and 47 penalty minutes.
50.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,029 minutes, the 53rd percentile — the lowest of any regular forward on a club that was second in the league in shot attempts, which is a real mark against him rather than a good number in poor company. His ice went 51-55 against an expectation of 43.47-43.23.
The Finesse Game
151 attempts at a median of 25 feet, 39 per cent from inside 20, converting at 11.92 per cent off a 92.5 mph shot at the 62nd percentile.
120 points in 282 career games. The production has climbed every season and the underlying share has not, which is the tension in his file: he scores more than he drives, and on a club this good at controlling play that shows up as the weakest link.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 185, and the skating is the best on the roster by measurement: 23.4 mph at the 96th percentile with 3.2 bursts over twenty miles an hour a game at the 97th.
He is genuinely explosive and he uses it to attack off the rush rather than to forecheck — 2.56 miles a game at the 48th percentile says he is not covering ground the way Coleman or Backlund do. 97 penalty minutes in 282 games.
The Intangibles
Fifty-sixth overall in 2016, out of Kelowna, and five seasons of steady improvement from a second-round pick.
He is 25. He has the best raw tools of any forward here and the worst results relative to his linemates, which is the definition of a player a club keeps waiting on — and Calgary is running out of seasons in which waiting is free.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He is genuinely explosive and he uses it to attack off the rush rather than to forecheck”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,029 minutes
- Expected goals
- 50.1%
- 54th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.1%
- 90th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 55 against. Expected: 43.5 and 43.2.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1029 minutes at five-on-five
- Tyler Toffolinow NJD39%
- Nazem Kadri39%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.1% — 5.1 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 1,029 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm | 50.8% | 49.6% | 58.6% |
| Nazem Kadri | 48.7% | 51.1% | 56.8% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 55.8% | 46.2% | 60.9% |
50.8% together, 49.6% for him apart and 58.6% for Lindholm apart. Lindholm was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
202 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.