Armchair Hockey Scout Beta
33

Jakob Silfverberg

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing

Eleven years, 739 games, and the hardest defensive deployment in the league at thirty-three.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13OTT4810919+9122121347.516:14
2013-14ANA52101323+2121211198.414:16
2014-15ANA81132639+15242121896.915:40
2015-16ANA82201939+8322022159.316:58
2016-17ANA79232649+102051522710.118:29
2017-18ANA77172340+6182121879.117:58
2018-19ANA73241943-92832416314.717:06
2019-20ANA6621183901442115513.617:41
2020-21ANA478816-1718210918.816:57
2021-22ANA5351621-3301001204.217:02
2022-23ANA81101626-20324021417.115:11
2023-24 so far
Career739161193354+124028112117419.316:44

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 16 assists in 81 games — 26 points at 15:11 a night, minus-20, with 4 power-play goals on 141 shots, converting at 7.09 per cent, and 32 penalty minutes.

36.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 889 minutes, the 1st percentile — and the reason is one number: he started 35 per cent of his shifts in the attacking end, the 0th percentile in the league. Nobody in hockey was handed worse starting positions.

His ice went 26-47 against an expectation of 24.62-42.66.

The Finesse Game

141 attempts at a median of 31 feet, a third from inside 20 and a third from beyond 40, off a 94.4 mph shot at the 74th percentile. Ten goals is the lowest full season of his career and 161 in 739 games is the truer rate.

The offence has gone and both he and the club know it. What is left is a man who makes the correct read under pressure and does not turn the puck over in the middle of the ice.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 207. He is trusted a man short and he has been the club’s first penalty killer for most of a decade, which is the whole of his remaining value and a real one.

The skating holds at 33 — 22.0 mph, 37th percentile — and he covers 2.27 miles a game, which is low because his shifts are short and defensive rather than because he does not work.

The Intangibles

Thirty-ninth overall in 2009 to Ottawa, and he arrived in the Bobby Ryan trade a decade ago. 739 games, 354 points, and the longest continuous service on this roster after Fowler.

He is 33, on a club that has stopped competing. He is a useful third-line winger for a contender at the deadline and everybody involved knows it — the only question is whether Anaheim would rather keep the room intact for the young players.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    32.7% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    28% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He is trusted a man short and he has been the club's first penalty killer for most of a decade”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What is left is a man who makes the correct read under pressure and does not turn the puck over in the middle of the ice.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 889 minutes

Expected goals
36.6%
1st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
40%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 47 against. Expected: 24.6 and 42.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
1st

The report ranks him 75 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 889 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
ANA took 39.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 36.6% — 3.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 889 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Isac Lundestrom41.8%33.4%33.1%
Cam Fowler39.5%34.9%42.6%
Simon Benoit32.5%38.8%38.5%

41.8% together, 33.4% for him apart and 33.1% for Lundestrom apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

159 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.